Tipping points as national security threats

Hey there folks,

COP30 is in full swing, and frankly, that’s not my purview, nor do the proceedings there really interest me in the slightest. Here’s what I actually think is the highest signal and most noteworthy, or at minimum, novel and differentiated, from the past week.

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• In some welcome news, China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been flatish or even falling for 18 months, per analysis from Carbon Brief, even though global emissions may well still end up having risen in 2025 (more on that below). Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

• Despite what we read above re: China, global carbon dioxide emissions are on track to rise 1.1% this year to an all-time high, with researchers now stating more clearly that "keeping global warming below 1.5° Celsius is no longer plausible." For longer-term readers of these pages, that won’t be news. Link.

• Iceland designated the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation current system a national security concern and existential threat. This marks the first time a potential tipping point in a critical component of the Earth’s climate system has been formally brought to the attention of the National Security Council. Link.

• Israel began pumping desalinated water into the depleted Sea of Galilee in a world-first attempt to top up a freshwater lake with processed seawater. It plans to channel sufficient water to raise the lake level by 0.5 centimeters per month. Link.

• The Southwest Power Pool's board approved an $8.6 billion slate of 50 transmission projects across 14 states to help meet doubled demand expected in the next 10 years, warning that "simply adding new generation will not resolve [all] challenges." Link.

• California added 1,200 MW of battery energy storage to its grid over the last six months, bringing total installed capacity to about one-third of what's needed to reach its 100% clean energy by 2045 goal. Link.

• North Wales was chosen as the site for the U.K.'s first small modular nuclear reactor, a £2.5 billion project the government says will create thousands of jobs and kick-start a nationwide SMR rollout. Link.

• Oklo reported progress on its Aurora experimental breeder reactor at Idaho National Laboratory after receiving DOE approval for a safety plan for its fuel fabrication facility. It expects to complete its reactor in late 2027 or 2028; my forecast would probably shift a bit closer to 2030; happy to be wrong and eat crow. Link.

• Rondo Energy and SCG Cleanergy announced the start of operation of Southeast Asia's first heat battery at SCG's cement plant in Thailand, aiming to deliver 2.3MWt of continuous steam charged from the grid and a nearby floating solar farm. Link.

• Waymo announced its self-driving vehicles will soon be allowed to drive on select freeways in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, expanding from city-street-only operations to include airport service. Link.

• Eight philanthropic organizations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, committed $300 million over three years to address climate change effects on human health through the Climate and Health Funders Coalition. Link.

• NYPA, NYCHA, and NYSERDA announced a $32 million partnership with Copper to replace gas stoves in public housing with new 120-volt induction models. The roll-out started with 100 stoves for a pilot and will scale to 10,000 units if successful. Link.

• Peak Energy announced a record-breaking agreement with Jupiter Power to supply up to 4.75GWh of sodium-ion battery energy storage systems for deployment between 2027 and 2030, valued at up to $500 million. Link.

• BYD could sell up to 1.6 million vehicles abroad next year, according to a Citi report, the same number analysts expect rival Tesla to sell in total in 2025. Link.

• Chinese-made EVs accounted for ~85% of new EV sales in Brazil in 2024, with BYD also achieving significant market share in places like Mexico (73%) over the same period. Link.

• Massachusetts lawmakers advanced an energy-affordability bill that would make the state's 2030 emissions target nonbinding, slash funding for energy-efficiency programming, reinstate incentives for high-efficiency gas heating systems, and limit climate initiatives that impact utility bills. Critics argue that the bill sacrifices minimal short-term savings for longer-term (and business-as-usual) environmental externalities as well as higher costs. Link.

• Pine Gate Renewables moved to close a solar factory in western North Carolina and will lay off more than 78% of its workforce as it filed for bankruptcy due to clean energy policy changes under the Trump administration. Link.

• Plug Power put plans to build as many as six new hydrogen production plants across the U.S. on hold as it backs off on $1.66B loan guarantees in parallel to the Trump administration paring back support and funding for hydrogen significantly. Link.

• ICL Group canceled plans for a St. Louis lithium-iron phosphate plant after the Trump administration canceled a $200 million grant supporting the project. Link.

• New York agreed to suspend implementation of new statewide rules that would have banned all new low-rise buildings from establishing gas system hookups, just weeks after losing its biggest battery project on Staten Island amid resident pushback. Link.

• Leading Light Wind offshore project filed to withdraw its plans for a 2.4-gigawatt wind farm 35 miles off New Jersey's coast, becoming the latest casualty of the offshore wind industry's economic and regulatory challenges. Link.

• New York regulators approved an underwater gas pipeline connecting New York's outer borough gas network to Pennsylvania fracking fields, reversing three past rejections and teeing up a potential policy fight between Governor Kathy Hochul and NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. Link.

• A new study in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface details two decades of progressive fracturing and disintegration around the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf in Antarctica, introducing significant uncertainty for global sea-level rise projections. Link.

• On the methane and super pollutant front, there’s lots of news rounded up in this piece, which I wrote with Lauren Singer in our newsletter, superpollute (which you should also subscribe to!) Check it out if you didn’t get a chance to read since Thursday. Link.

CURATED DEALS

Larger funding rounds:

• Einride, based out of Stockholm, plans to go public through a SPAC merger with Legato Merger Corp. III at a $1.8 billion valuation, positioning the battery-electric and autonomous freight truck provider for a NYSE listing next year. Link.

• Firmus Technologies, based out of Singapore, raised a $326.8 million round at a $3.9 billion post-money valuation, more than triple the valuation of a round it raised just two months ago, to build renewable energy-powered AI computing data centers. Link.

• Harbinger Motors, based out of Garden Grove, California, raised a $160 million Series C led by FedEx, which also placed an order for the electric truck maker's medium-duty chassis. Link.

• Teradar, based out of Boston, raised a $150 million Series B led by Capricorn Investment Group to develop solid-state terahertz sensors for automotive driver-assistance and self-driving systems. Link.

• Valar Atomics, based out of El Segundo, California, raised a $130 million Series A co-led by Snowpoint Ventures, Day One Ventures, and Dream Ventures, with Palmer Luckey and Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar also backing the advanced small modular nuclear reactor developer. Link.

• Exowatt, based out of Miami, raised a $50 million Series A extension co-led by MVP Ventures and 8090 Industries to scale production of modular solar thermal systems to provide continuous low-cost power for AI data centers. Link.

• Fabric8Labs, based out of San Diego, raised $50 million in equity funding co-led by NEA and Intel Capital to develop electrochemical additive manufacturing technology for high-precision metal components. Link.

Medium-sized funding rounds:

• ElectronX, based out of Chicago, raised a $30 million Series A led by DCVC to develop its direct-access power derivatives market for hedging short-term electricity price risk. Link.

• Qorium, based out of the Netherlands, raised €22 million (~$26 million) in Series A funding led by Invest-NL to scale and commercialize its lab-grown leather as a more sustainable alternative to animal-derived materials. Link.

• SunDrive, based out of Sydney, Australia, raised ~$16.5 million in new ARENA funding to scale its copper-based, silver-free solar cell technology and advance a 300MW production partnership. Link.

• Endolith, based out of Denver, Colorado, raised a $13.5 million Series A led by Squadra Ventures to use AI-powered microbes to recover copper and critical minerals from mine waste, with plans to expand into lithium and nickel applications. Link.

• Number 8 Bio, based out of Sydney, Australia, raised $11 million in Series A funding led by Icehouse Ventures to scale animal trials and prepare its methane-reducing livestock feed additive for a commercial launch in 2026. Link.

Smaller funding rounds:

• Extellis, based out of Durham, North Carolina, raised a $6.8 million seed round led by Oval Park Capital to develop satellite imaging technology for all-weather Earth observation. Link.

• Green Spot Technologies, based out of Toulouse, France, raised €5 million (~$5.8 million) in equity funding led by Team for the Planet to scale production of fermented, upcycled ingredients and launch MILATEA, a sustainable cocoa-alternative brand. Link.

• Umami United, based out of Tokyo, raised 310 million yen (~$2 million) in net-new pre-seed funding to advance its plant-based egg technology and expand into Europe and the U.S. Link.

Funds:

• Oyster Bay, based out of Hamburg, Germany, closed its second, €100 million+ (~$116 million+) oversubscribed fund, positioning it among Europe's largest dedicated "future food" investors. Link.

• Unconventional Ventures, based out of Copenhagen, announced the first close of its Fund II to the tune of €50 million (~$58 million) in capital raised so far to back overlooked founders tackling global challenges. Link.

Have a nice week ahead,

— Nick