That's one way to boost oil prices

Hello folks,

Hope you’re keeping ok; that wasn’t a fun weekend to be online at all! Here’s to hoping the wheel’s perpetual turning revolves towards more peace and prosperity for all soon. Turmoil in the Middle East portends plenty for energy and sustainability, however, so I can’t go ostrich mode entirely, as nice as that sounds. That and lots more follows below.

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• The below outlines the importance of the Straight of Hormuz, which will likely be closed or, at a minimum, avoided as much as possible by shipping companies until the developing conflict between Iran and the U.S., Israel, and their proxies eases. Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

• Oil prices rose sharply as U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and retaliatory strikes sent disruptions through the global energy supply chain. WTI crude jumped ~8% to about $72/barrel, and Brent rose ~8% to about $79/barrel (as of this writing), with attacks on two vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz reported so far. As above, ~20% of the world's oil is shipped through said Strait. Link.

• Global greenhouse gas emissions hit 60.63 billion tons of CO2-equivalent last year, a 0.5% rise to a new record high, per Climate TRACE. Notably, for the first time since at least 2015, emissions from China's power sector decreased year-over-year, but that decline was offset by an equivalent increase in U.S. power emissions. Link.

Elsewhere in energy

• Form Energy inked a deal with Xcel Energy to install 300 megawatts of its iron-air batteries in Pine Island, Minnesota, to help power a new Google data center. When built and fully charged, the system could hold up to 30 gigawatt-hours of energy and dispatch for up to 100 hours straight; if it comes to fruition, it will be one of, if not the largest and longest-duration battery projects in the world. Google will pay Xcel to build 1,400 MW of wind, 200 MW of solar, and Form’s long-duration storage, offering one of the cleaner stacks powering data centers we’ve seen yet. TBD on if and how this all comes together. Link.

• Proxima Fusion, based out of Munich, Germany, signed a €2 billion (~$2.36 billion) agreement with Bavaria, RWE, and the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics to develop the world's first commercial fusion power plant in Europe. Proxima will contribute 20% of the program cost, with the remainder backed through non-dilutive state and federal government funding. Link.

• SHINE Technologies, based out of Janesville, WI, raised $240 million in equity funding led by NantWorks for its fusion energy and nuclear waste recycling business. Link.

• The initial grid synchronization and connection of the first phase of the M Terra solar project in the Philippines has been completed. The project includes a 3.5 GW solar and 4.5 GWh BESS system on the island of Luzon, and will become the world's largest integrated solar and battery storage facility once complete. By the end of January, 1,288 MW of solar had been installed, and the project had stated aims to add another 250 MW of solar and 112.5 MWh of battery storage operational by the end of February, all delivered in less than 15 months since groundbreaking. Link.

• The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing closed its largest-ever $26 billion loan to Southern Company subsidiaries to fund 5 GW of new natural gas generation, 6 GW of nuclear power through uprates at the Vogtle, Hatch, and Farley plants, hydropower modernization, battery storage, and over 1,300 miles of new transmission lines in Georgia and Alabama. The loan is projected to deliver more than $7 billion in ratepayer savings and supports adding 16 GW of firm power to the grid. Link.

• The Trump administration isn’t just focused on SMRs for nuclear fission advancement. It’s also begun taking meetings with utilities and developers to build 10 new large-scale reactors by 2030, which would almost certainly be Westinghouse AP1000s capable of producing up to 1.1 GW of electricity per unit. The most recent AP1000 projects at Vogtle in Georgia were notoriously over budget and behind schedule. Link.

• Poland's Supreme Administrative Court also rejected an environmental complaint aimed at halting construction of AP1000 reactors at a Baltic Sea site, clearing a major hurdle for the country's first nuclear plant using American technology. Link.

• Public opposition to data centers is growing quickly. A new Heatmap poll found just 28% of Americans would support a data center near their home, down from 44% last fall. The biggest partisan gap was between rural and urban Republicans. Link.

• Amazon announced plans to invest $12 billion in new data center campuses in Louisiana, creating 540 full-time jobs and pledging up to $400 million in local water infrastructure. Meanwhile, at least 25 data centers were abandoned last year following local opposition (see above). Link. Link.

• Russia's nuclear regulator Rostekhnadzor issued a 10-year operating license for Unit 2 of the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, which is Europe's largest nuclear fission power plant. It has been offline for four years amidst the ongoing Russian and Ukrainian war. Rosatom has applied for a license for Unit 6 and aims to do the same for Units 3, 4, and 5 by year-end; Moscow's intent to consolidate control over the facility is clear. Link.

• Ohio jurors are deciding whether two former FirstEnergy executives are guilty in the HB 6 utility bribery scheme, which could become the largest corruption scandal in state history. The utility admitted to paying approximately $60 million to dark money groups that funneled funds to former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, plus $4.3 million to a company controlled by a former Public Utilities Commission chair. Ohio customers have paid more than $400 million in coal plant subsidies under HB 6, and the state's renewable energy and efficiency standards remain decimated. Link.

Transportation

• Wayve, based out of London, raised ~$1.5 billion in Series D funding from investors including Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Stellantis, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Uber. Uber committed an additional $300 million in milestone-based capital tied to deploying Wayve-powered robotaxis in 10 global cities, starting in London. The company, which develops end-to-end deep learning for autonomous driving, is now valued at $8.6 billion. Link.

• Alphabet's Waymo expanded its driverless ride service to four new cities, namely Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Orlando, bringing its total U.S. footprint to 10 cities. Waymo is on track to provide more than 1 million driverless rides per week by year-end and has ~3,000 robotaxis operating nationwide. Link. Link.

• Uber is investing more than $100 million to build dedicated fast-charging hubs for autonomous vehicles in the U.S., starting in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Dallas. The company aims to launch robotaxi services in at least 10 cities by the end of 2026, partnering with Lucid/Nuro, Volkswagen, and Avride. Link.

• AV developers are increasingly relying on "world models," AI systems that simulate physical reality, to train self-driving cars. Waymo says its model, built on Google DeepMind's Genie 3, can simulate rare scenarios from tornadoes to wandering elephants. Some experts warn that using simulated data to both build and validate these models creates safety risks that aren't fully understood. Link.

• Einride, based out of Stockholm, raised an oversubscribed $113 million PIPE (private investment in public equity) ahead of a SPAC listing on the New York Stock Exchange for its autonomous electric trucks. Link.

• Chinese EV maker Nio provided a million battery swaps in China in less than a week. Link.

Industry

• Phoenix Tailings, based out of Woburn, MA, raised a $30.2 million Series B round at a $360 million post-money valuation and $10 million in venture debt. Investors included Traxys North America, Olive Tree Capital, and Geodesic Alliance Fund. The company processes rare earth elements from mining waste into finished metals and alloys. Link.

• Equinor abandoned a gigawatt-scale blue hydrogen plant in the Netherlands, one of the EU's landmark projects to prove hydrogen can be produced at scale using natural gas with CCS, as demand for the fuel stalls. Link.

• Green-steel startup Boston Metal, also based out of Woburn, MA, suffered a major setback after an "unforeseen critical equipment failure" at its Brazil facility on January 30 thwarted a key funding deal. The company will lay off 71 US employees after losing access to committed capital. Boston Metal, which has raised over $400 million from investors including ArcelorMittal, Saudi Aramco Ventures, and Microsoft's Climate Innovation Fund, is developing "molten oxide electrolysis" to make steel without coal or emissions. Link.

Climate science and interventions

• Scientists continue to debate whether and to what extent the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening. Researchers from the University of Miami and NOAA, who have been studying the Florida Current for 43 years, found it had remained stable over the past four decades after correcting cable data for geomagnetic field changes. But the key monitoring cable malfunctioned in 2023, and scientists say they need another 20 years of observations to determine if any decline is a robust feature. Other scientists are far more confident that AMOC is already weakening. Link.

• The NRDC launched a new Solar Geoengineering Research Governance Platform to collate research on solar radiation management, the controversial suite of technologies including but not limited to stratospheric aerosol injection to reflect the sun's energy back into space. The project will provide governance tools for research institutions. Link.

Other odds and ends

• The Net Zero Asset Managers initiative relaunched with 250 signatories and $3.7 trillion under management after suspending operations in early 2025. The revised commitment statement drops its founding 2050 target date but maintains support for Paris Agreement goals while recognizing "diverse jurisdictional realities." Link.

• China plans to tighten its national air quality standards (mostly focused on mitigating smog) for the first time since 2012. New limits on pollutants will be phased in from March and strengthened further through 2031. That said, China's new limits are still weaker than WHO 2021 guidance. Link.

• Syndicate One, based out of Brussels, Belgium, raised €22 million (~$26 million) in a first close for its second fund, backed by Sofina, Finhouse, COI, PMV, SFPIM, Finance&Invest Brussels, and Wallonie Entreprendre. The fund will invest in early-stage technology startups founded by Belgian entrepreneurs. Link.

Go with grace,

— Nick