Fervo flies high

Hey folks,

Hope all those in the U.S. had a great Memorial Day Weekend. I’m back in New York for a bit for work and to catch up with some folks before I get back on the international travel circuit with my next destination being Belize. I’m sure I’ll learn some cool stuff about susatainability out there, particularly / at minimum on the conservation front. I’ll report back. Before that, let’s round up the news from the past couple weeks across energy, climate, sustainability and more. There’s been plenty to chew on, including one of the first IPOs for a climate tech company from the early 2020s vintage!

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• Crude oil prices are still ~50% higher than they were before conflict in the Middle East escalated in March, and prior decreases in oil have been met with abrupt increases again over the past few months anytime a proposed ceasefire failed to prove enduring. Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

• Geothermal startup Fervo Energy completed a Nasdaq debut, raising an upsized $1.89 billion and pushing its valuation past $10 billion. The Houston-based company applies horizontal drilling techniques developed during the shale era to previously inaccessible geothermal resources and is the first enhanced geothermal systems company to reach public markets. At Cape Station, its inaugural commercial project in Utah, Fervo aims to get 100 MW of generation capacity online in 2027, and then scale that up fivefold to 500 MW in 2028. The stock is up 33%+ since debuting; as of this writing (5/25), $FRVO fetches a $11+ billion valuation. Link.

Energy market x Iran war updates

• Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran continued to oscillate wildly of late. Trump declared a framework agreement "largely negotiated" on Saturday, prompting a 5% drop in oil prices, which has extended into a more pronounced drop to start this week as both sides again signaled progress, with Brent closing around $96 and WTI near $90. We’ll see if this détente sticks; even if it does, it will take some time for prices to normalize. Link.

• One in three Americans was living in “energy insecurity” in 2024, up from roughly one in four in 2020, per EIA data. During that period, utilities sent 94.9 million final shutoff notices in a single year. A Heatmap-MIT analysis found more than 98% of 400-plus utilities have raised rates since 2020, over half by more than 20%, with 79% hiking again in 2025. The burden is also falling hardest on those already least able to absorb it. Link.

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped to 44.8, a lower reading than we’ve seen ever since the survey launched in the 1950s, as wartime fuel costs and pervasive cost-of-living anxiety weigh on households. Notably, this print comes even as equity markets continue setting new highs. Link.

Elsewhere in energy and electrification

• Wind and solar combined generated more than 22% of global electricity in April, eclipsing natural gas in global generation share for the first time on record. Ember attributed the milestone partly to seasonal conditions and partly to the Iran war accelerating the shift away from fossil fuel dependence. Link.

• U.S. grid battery additions reached 9.7 GWh in Q1 2026, the strongest opening quarter on record and a 32% improvement over Q1 2025 per SEIA and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Link.

• Ford Energy, the battery storage unit carved out of Ford Motor's EV operations, also secured its first major commercial win: a five-year supply agreement with EDF's North American renewables arm for up to 20 GWh of battery systems delivered at 4 GWh annually, with initial deliveries slated for 2028. Link.

• NextEra Energy agreed to acquire Dominion Energy in a $67 billion all-stock transaction that would produce the world's largest utility. The combined entity would carry a $420 billion enterprise value, operate roughly 110 GW of generation, and step into a 130-plus GW queue of "large load" interconnection requests (data centers foremost among them) targeting service by 2032. That queue alone would dwarf New York State's entire installed base several times over. The companies pledged $2.25 billion in customer credits over two years as a sweetener for state regulators. Link.

• Germany is now expected to overshoot its 2030 climate target by up to 100 million tonnes of CO2 (“MtCO2”), according to its independent climate advisory council. The government had estimated its overshoot at just 4.5 MtCO2 previously. Having reduced emissions roughly 48% from 1990 levels, the country still needs to hit 65% by 2030 and is still targeting net zero by 2045. Link.

• A proposed AI data center in northwestern Utah spanning more than 62 square miles that will require 9 GW of energy generation capacity, i.e., more than the entire state currently consumes, is facing a local ballot challenge after nearly 4,000 residents filed objections to its energy and water demands. Link.

• Cleveland also rejected a permit for a $1.6 billion data center in a residential neighborhood. Approximately 25 data centers were canceled nationally in Q1 as local opposition becomes a meaningful constraint on hyperscaler expansion. Link. Link.

• The IRA-era solar and battery manufacturing build-out in the U.S. is (understanbly) losing momentum. New solar factory announcements tumbled from a peak of over $2 billion per quarter to roughly $350 million last quarter; capital deployed into new solar facilities fell 22% between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and battery manufacturing investment dropped 16%. The primary driver is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which set a July 4 construction-start deadline to claim wind and solar tax credits. Link.

Transportation

• Global EV and plug-in hybrid sales are trending toward a record 23 million units this year, with the IEA projecting nearly 30% of all new cars sold globally in 2026 will be electric or plug-in hybrid. European EV and PHEV combined share is expected to reach one in three vehicles; Asia-Pacific ex-China and Latin America are each forecast to grow well above 40%. Link.

• China's auto export mix crossed a historic threshold in April: new energy vehicles accounted for 52.7% of total outbound units at 406,000 cars, marking the first month ever that China shipped more EVs abroad than combustion vehicles. Domestic sales, however, fell 21.5% to a multi-year low. Link.

• U.S. EV sales dropped 23% year-on-year in Q1 2026 after the expiration of federal tax credits, with volumes also essentially flat versus the prior quarter per Rhodium Group's Clean Investment Monitor. Link.

• U.S. hybrid sales climbed 20% over the past year, and nearly 50% just since February, as drivers rattled by fuel prices gravitate toward a middle path that doesn't require the same payback calculus as a full EV purchase. Link.

• U.K. EV sales meanwhile set an all-time quarterly record in Q1 2026, with about 87,000 pure electric vehicles sold between January and March per SMMT, a 32% year-on-year gain and the highest-volume quarter the market has ever recorded. Pure electric light duty vehicles sales share is still ‘only’ 4.3% of total sales. Link.

• Tesla's Austin Robotaxi service has logged 17 crashes since its summer debut, with the company bearing fault in roughly seven, per newly unredacted NHTSA filings. Two passengers suffered minor injuries and one required hospitalization. On the whole, self-driving performance remains markedly safer than human driving; Waymo has a substantially larger data set than Tesla so far towards this end. Link.

• California announced a $1 billion rebate program targeting electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks as part of its continued push toward zero-emission commercial vehicle adoption. Link.

Climate science

• Antarctic sea ice has fallen to unprecedented lows, according to new research in Science Advances, and there’s risk that a self-reinforcing feedback loop is already underway to drive continued losses thereof as diminished ice leaves ocean surfaces more warm and salty. Through 2015, Antarctic sea ice had actually been on a modest upward trend, but that brightspot in albedo and climate resilience to global warming has been lost. Link.

• Stardust Solutions, the geoengineering startup backed by former Israeli nuclear officials and $75 million in total funding, published the full composition of the particle it wants to spray in the stratosphere to deflect incoming sunlight: amorphous silica in the first generation, and a calcium carbonate-core silica shell in a second design engineered to avoid stratospheric heating at higher deployment scales. The company argues that dispersing 10 million tons over several years could lower global temperatures by 1.5°C, a proposition that more than 600 scientists have formally called for an international ban on. Link.

Fission and fusion

• Deep Fission, which is developing small nuclear reactors housed deep underground, also filed with the SEC for a $150 million IPO targeting a valuation of up to $1.66 billion. Link.

• X-energy, which is also now publicly listed, commanding a valuation north of $10 billion, secured NRC approval of the environmental review for its debut plant, which will feature four 80 MW Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled reactors at Dow's Seadrift, Texas facility. This represents the first commercial nuclear project in the NRC's 52-year history to clear environmental permitting through an assessment rather than a full environmental impact statement. The safety review recommendation is expected in November. Link.

Policy

• The Trump administration announced it is easing restrictions on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases used in air conditioners and refrigerators, framing the decision as relief for grocery store and thereby consumer prices ahead of the midterms. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin joined Trump at the White House; a separate proposed rule would also roll back HFC restrictions on transporters of refrigerated goods. Link.

Honorable financing mentions

• Boston Metal, based in Woburn, MA, a green steel and critical metals startup, raised a $75 million round (raising total funding to date over $500 million) to restart its Brazilian plant after a January equipment accident forced layoffs, and to expand into metals including niobium, tantalum, vanadium, and nickel. Climate Investment participated. Link.

• Star Catcher, a two-year-old startup based in Jacksonville, Florida, raised $65 million in Series A funding led by B Capital to build an orbital power grid that transmits solar energy via laser to satellites in space. Shield Capital and Cerberus Ventures also participated. Link.

• Gridcare, based out of Redwood City, California, raised $64 million in Series A funding led by Sutter Hill Ventures to use physics-based AI to surface unused electrical grid capacity and accelerate power connection timelines for data centers and AI infrastructure. John Doerr, National Grid Partners, Future Energy Ventures, Emerson Collective, and Stanford University also invested. Link.

• Mantle8, based in Grenoble, France, raised a €31 million (~$36.2 million) Series A led by Sandwater for its subsurface modeling and exploration technologies that identify commercially viable geologic hydrogen reserves. Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Ecotechnologies 2, IP Group, Wind Capital, and Calderion participated. Link.

• Iceotope, based in Sheffield, U.K., raised a $26 million Series B to that manufacture a chassis-based liquid cooling systems for AI data centers and edge computing infrastructure. Two Seas Capital and Barclays Climate Ventures co-led. Link.

• Aboard, based out of Orange, California, raised a $13 million in Pre-Series A funding co-led by Ondine Capital and Llama Ventures to build electric travel trailers with integrated batteries, towing assist systems, and automated controls designed to extend range and enable off-grid capability. Link.

• Texture, based out of New York, raised a $12.5 million Series A co-led by VoLo Earth Ventures and Equal Ventures to create a unified operational layer for electric utility cooperatives to conduct real-time grid monitoring, distributed energy resource management, and OEM integrations. There are 850-plus co-ops serving 42 million people in the U.S. Lerer Hippeau and Abstract Ventures also participated. Link.

• Qurie, based out of Freiburg, Germany, raised a €2.2 million (~$2.5 million) round from High-Tech Gründerfonds, Technology Transfer Fund TT49, and Aepikur for its electrocaloric cooling systems designed to replace electrically responsive materials for the compressors and refrigerants in conventional HVAC and refrigeration. Link.

• S2G Investments, based out of Chicago, raised $1 billion for its S2G Solutions Fund I, targeting "missing middle" growth-stage businesses improving supply-chain resilience and energy and food security. Portfolio companies include XOcean, Echandia, Exacto, and Urbint. Link.

• Playground Global, based out of Palo Alto, closed its fourth fund at $475 million, with a mandate spanning compute architectures, semiconductor materials, energy technologies, robotics, and quantum computing. Link.

• Convective Capital, based out of San Francisco, launched an $85 million second fund targeting climate resilience infrastructure. Founder Bill Clerico cited "$60 trillion of real estate at high risk from disaster" and argued that conditions have deteriorated enough that private markets are now positioned to lead where public spending hasn't. Link.

OTHER COOL STUFF

On the podcast front, I have both a new podcast of my own to recommend to you as well as a fantastic podcast from friends Ben Eidelson and Anay Shah at Stepchange:

• Ben and Anay’s podcast is a magnum opus on the history of power grid’s and how a deeper understanding thereof informs ongoing discussion and analyses of how best to simultaneous grow power supply and decarbonzie it. Highly recommend giving it a listen (perhaps over a few days), if you’re keen to learn more about the grid or, as was my case, it’s simply been a while since you thought about it that critically as opposed to other climate-y things.

• For my latest podcast, I was stoked to welcome Aidan Madigan-Curtis, Partner at Eclipse Capital, to the Keep Cool Podcast. Eclipse Capital recently raised another $1.3B in new funds, and now manages more than $10B, making it one of the larger yet underdiscussed venture firms funding decarbonizaiton work, among several other key pillars of focus. Aidan and I discussed Eclipse’s outlook and theses as well as many other topics ranging from whether and to what extent the data center buildout should still be expected to be a boon for decarbonization and sustainability and how public market narratives (fitting as we discuss Fervo’s IPO) have shifted to priviledge hardware-focused businesses again after a decade in which software was the darling and valuations reflected that. Tune in for all that and more here.

Finally, here’s a cool job opportunity: my friends at Althea Insurance, a new climate resilient insurance play starting with storm coverage in the U.S., are hiring a software engineer to support their rapidly scaling product. “Backend-first, full-stack capable” is a glimpse into how they’re thinking about the role; many more details available here.

Until next time,

— Nick