EV sales slump

Hi there,

Hope all my Northern Hemisphere-based folk are excited to welcome in spring later this week. Hopefully, the vibes improve for the better in the Middle East soon, too, where continued hostilities between the U.S. and Israel and Iran are pushing oil futures towards $100 again in Sunday night trading as I write this. More on that and lots more across energy and sustainability follows below:

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• Fertilizers are another core commodity group that features global supply chains with significant Middle Eastern export concentrations, portending disruptions given the ongoing conflict in and around Iran. Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

• Multiple forecasting groups have released updated models and results from them that suggest a strong El Niño may develop in late 2026. The current median forecast is for an El Niño that’s stronger than the 2023/2024 one and potentially on par with the 2015/2016 one. El Niño can temporarily boost global mean temperatures by as much as 0.2°C, though the peak warming effect typically lags 3-4 months after the event peaks, meaning this will likely impact 2027 temperatures more than this year’s. Link.

• The war in Iran is unleashing severe pollution across the Tehran metro area, home to ~18.5 million people. The UK-based Conflict and Environment Observatory identified over 300 incidents posing environmental risks from the hostilities, with the Israeli strike on oil depots outside Tehran representing the largest pollution incident so far. Link.

• As oil prices globally remain elevated, the International Energy Agency's member states unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves (its largest-ever release) to cushion the supply disruption from the Middle East war. The U.S. will contribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Link.

• Early evidence of oil market-related demand destruction is cropping up in Asia: last week, the Thai government asked state agency employees to work from home to save gas. Link.

Power

• Global long-duration energy storage deployment surged 49% from 2024 to 2025; China dominated most of that build-out, according to a new Wood Mackenzie report. Link.

• China's CATL reported $10.4 billion in profit for 2025, up 42% from 2024, beating expectations and driving a 10% share price bump. The battery giant’s results were buoyed by rising grid-scale battery demand and insulated from mineral price swings by its upstream lithium investments. Link.

• The U.S. Department of Energy (“the DOE”) made $1.9 billion in funding available for grid upgrades focused on reconductoring, i.e., swapping old cables for higher-capacity lines on existing rights of way. The announcement came the same day PJM Interconnection's market monitor released data showing data center load growth as the primary driver of rising electricity costs in America's largest power market. Link. Link.

• The U.S. solar industry installed just over 43 GW of panels in 2025, a 14% decrease from 2024, with the utility-scale sector shrinking nearly 40% quarter-over-quarter in Q4. Link.

• France produced a record 521.1 TWh of low-carbon electricity in 2025, representing 95% of total power production, as nuclear reactor upgrades allowed the fleet to generate more power. Link.

• Revolution Wind, a 65-turbine, 705 MW offshore wind farm off the East Coast, has begun generating power for Rhode Island and Connecticut. The project survived attempts by the Trump administration to shut it down; its completion offers a timely counterpoint to the supply insecurity of fossil fuels amidst ongoing geopolitical conflict. Link.

• Base Power, the Texas-based home battery startup that raised $1 billion last October, will install 100 MW of home battery capacity for cooperative utility CoServ outside Dallas–Fort Worth over the next two years. Homeowners can access a whole-home backup battery system for a $695 installation fee and $19/month subscription. Link.

Transportation

• Honda is taking roughly $15.7 billion in write-offs and losses as it recalibrates its EV strategy, becoming the latest auto giant to bleed money as EV uptake slows. Link.

• Global EV registrations fell 11% from January to February, largely due to lost buyer incentives. Link.

• BYD, the world’s largest EV manufacturer, reported combined January and February 2026 sales that were 36% below 2025 levels, signaling a more competitive landscape intraregionally in China even as Chinese companies overtake competitors in many international markets. Link.

• Volkswagen will cut 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 as post-tax profits fell 44% in 2025 to €6.9 billion (~$8 billion), the company's worst annual performance since the Dieselgate scandal. CEO Oliver Blume cited geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariffs, and intense competition from China; declining German industrial conditions and higher energy costs are likely also part of the picture here. Link.

• Zoox, the Amazon-owned robotaxi company, announced a multiyear partnership to deploy robotaxis on Uber's network in Las Vegas this summer and Los Angeles in 2027. NHTSA is also seeking public comment on Zoox's application to deploy 2,500 robotaxis without human controls. Link.

• Two U.S.-based companies, Invisible Urban Charging and ATX Smart Mobility, announced a $500 million commitment to deploy integrated EV charging infrastructure across central Mexico, starting with the Bajío industrial corridor. Link.

• Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai’s compensation package now features up to $260 million tied explicitly to Waymo's performance; this is the first time the autonomous vehicle unit has been linked to his pay. Link.

Industry

• Green cement startup Sublime Systems laid off two-thirds of its workforce after the DOE cancelled an $87 million grant. Link.

• Swedish company Stegra needs to raise $2.3 billion to complete its hydrogen-based clean steel plant, more than double its previous estimate. Link.

• Dajin Heavy Industry, a Chinese manufacturer of offshore wind foundations, has begun promoting plans to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The Beijing-based company has recently self-funded most of its expansion, including a new assembly plant in Tangshan and direct investments in wind and solar projects across China. Link.

• The DOE is restarting HB-Line operations at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina to recycle surplus plutonium and produce uranium-plutonium mixed oxide (MOX) fuel for advanced nuclear reactors. The facility, part of H-Canyon, the only chemical separations facility of its kind in the U.S., has been in a managed offline state since completing its last mission in 2018. Link.

Policy

• Meta and a small town in Alabama are fighting over a solar farm; the conflict has escalated into a legislative push to ban utility-scale solar across much of the state. State Senator Greg Albritton introduced SB 354, which would impose a one-year moratorium on new large-scale solar projects statewide, with an exception for the Tennessee Valley Authority. If enacted, it would be the first time a U.S. state issued a blanket ban on solar. Link.

• The Trump administration sued California, accusing it of abusing its Clean Air Act authority to enact EV rules that unlawfully force a national transition to electric vehicles. If successful, the case could impact 17 different states, representing more than a third of the US auto market, all of which follow California's standards. Link.

Other fundraising and financing activity

• Emerald Technology Ventures raised €100 million (~$115 million) for its Global Water Fund II, out of which it plans to invest in startups that are developing water treatment, reuse, monitoring, and infrastructure resilience technologies. Link.

• Breakout Ventures launched a $114 million Fund III, backed by Cortes Capital, S-Cubed Capital, The Kraft Group, Pinegrove Venture Partners, JIMCO, and Korea Omega Investment Corporation, to support early-stage startups commercializing scientific breakthroughs in areas like biology, chemistry, and advanced materials. Link.

• AIRMO, based out of Berlin and Luxembourg, raised a ~$5.8 million seed round to monitor methane and other greenhouse gases from space via shortwave infrared imager and micro-LiDAR systems. Ananda Impact Ventures led. Link.

Be good out there,

— Nick