China gets salty

Hello hello,

May, already. Plenty to catch up on from the past week in energy, climate tech, and sustainability news, so let’s hop right into it today.

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• Chinese domination of clean and climate tech supply chains is accelerating amidst the ongoing war in Iran and the pressure it has put on international oil and gas prices; exports of solar, batteries, and EVs reached a record 68 GW in March, according to Ember. Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

• CATL signed the world's largest-ever sodium-ion battery order to the tune of 60 GWh over three years with energy storage integrator HyperStrong. The company says it has solved the full sodium-ion mass production chain, while industry analysts are calling it a potential "DeepSeek moment" for energy storage, given sodium-ion's promise as a cheaper, more abundant alternative to lithium. CATL also raised $5 billion in a Hong Kong listing, with its stock up nearly 25% since late February on surging fossil fuel prices and data center storage demand. Link. Link.

• Rainmaker, a category-leading cloud seeding company, claims to have produced 142 million gallons of water in the form of snow; this is the first example of a commercial cloud seeding operation claiming verifiable precipitation results. Utah and Idaho are already paying the company “millions” of dollars annually while Utah's cloud seeding budget has grown from $350,000 five years ago to $7 million today. Results have not yet been published as a peer-reviewed study; I look forward to that data being made available. Link.

• A new paper using two decades of satellite data finds that Amazon deforestation causes top-of-atmosphere cooling that scales with the fraction of forest lost — and that cloud-driven albedo increases double the effect relative to surface brightening alone. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for cloud responses in climate models and land management policy. Link.

Energy market x Iran war updates

• Brent crude surged past $126/barrel this week, levels not seen since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While prices have again eased some heading into next week, Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent still averaging $90 in Q4, even if exports normalize by end of June. The U.S. dismissed Iran's latest ceasefire proposal; the near-term path to export normalization remains opaque. Link. Link.

• The U.S. national average gasoline price hit $4.39 per gallon, a new high since the start of the Iran war, per AAA. Link.

• The U.S. has also became a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since World War Two, and LNG exports are, rather predictably, posed to reach all-time highs. Link.

• The EU announced emergency state-aid measures to help offset the fuel and fertilizer cost spike from the Iran war. Individual companies can claim up to €50,000 each through year-end with minimal paperwork; energy-intensive industries can recover up to 70% of eligible excess electricity costs. Agriculture, fisheries, road, rail, and short-sea shipping are all covered. Airlines were notably excluded, though the EU left the door open for future intervention. Link.

• Japan Airlines announced it will double its jet fuel surcharge to $350 per ticket on flights to North America and Europe; South Korean carriers are implementing the same increase, citing elevated oil prices from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Link. Link.

Elsewhere in energy and industry

• India set a record electricity demand of 256.1 GW last weekend, driven by extreme heat pushing air conditioning usage to new levels. Coal and gas-fired generation both increased to meet demand, though solar accounted for one-fifth of total generation during peak periods. Link.

• The UAE announced it will withdraw from OPEC, effective May 1, shrinking the cartel to 11 members. The UAE accounts for roughly 4% of global oil production, and officials claimed the decision aligns with its long-term energy strategy and national interest. OPEC+ is expected to agree a modest output quota increase at its weekend meeting, though if more members leave the group in coming weeks, months, or even years, it will erode its overall lobbying power and ability to influence global oil market prices. Link.

• ERCOT set a new solar generation record this week, producing 33,975 MW produced for a brief interval on Saturday. That level of production is enough to meet ~65% average instantaneous power grid demand in ERCOT / Texas. Link.

• Vineyard Wind became the third U.S. offshore wind project to enter full commercial operation, with Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey activating the project's electricity contracts at a fixed price of $69.50/MWh for 20 years. Link.

• The Trump administration also confirmed it has brokered two more “pay-to-go-away” offshore wind buyout deals: Bluepoint Wind (50% owned by BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners) will receive up to $765 million reimbursed after committing an equal amount to a U.S. LNG facility, and Golden State Wind will recover ~$120 million after investing the same in oil, gas, or LNG projects along the Gulf Coast. Both developers agreed to exit U.S. offshore wind entirely. My joke of the week is that a new, hot business to pursue is larping like you’re going to develop an offshore wind farm just to get paid to cancel it. Might give it a go and see what happens. Link.

• Compass Datacenters, backed by Brookfield Asset Management, abandoned its bid to develop more than 800 acres of a planned 2,100-acre data center corridor in Prince William County, Virginia, after political resistance to tax incentives and mounting community opposition made the project untenable, despite already investing tens of millions on the development effort. Link.

• The Bureau of Land Management issued its third categorical exclusion for geothermal projects in two years; this time the exclusion covers pre-leasing drilling activities up to 10 acres. Senators Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) also introduced bipartisan legislation to boost federal funding for next-generation geothermal R&D. Link. Link.

• Meta placed an order for up to 1 GW of space-based solar capacity from Overview Energy to power its data centers. That’s a sizable bet on a technology that has yet to be proven at commercial scale; I’m all for the catalytic commitment, though. Link.

• The DOE announced it will soon unfreeze $430 million in negotiations to support upgrades at 212 hydropower facilities across the country. Link.

Fission and fusion

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems became the first fusion energy company to apply to connect to a major U.S. power grid, filing with PJM, the largest grid operator in the U.S., as it advances plans to open the world’s first nuclear fusion power plant in Virginia in the early 2030s (TBD, maybe another fusion developer will claim that “first.” What’s most likely in my opinion is that we’re still a bit further from commercial fusion than all this indicates, but I’d love to be wrong. Link.

• Belgium is reversing course on the decommissioning of its final two nuclear reactors and moving to nationalize its entire nuclear fleet. Prime Minister Bart De Wever confirmed an agreement with French utility Engie, which owns all seven of Belgium's nuclear plants, to begin studies for a full government takeover of its plants, following a years-long political battle that saw five of the seven reactors shut down. France nationalized its own nuclear utility EDF in 2023. Link.

• Canada also announced a new national nuclear strategy this week centered on its domestically-designed CANDU technology. Link.

• Duke Energy's Robinson nuclear plant in South Carolina received NRC approval to operate for 80 years. This was the agency's fastest-ever license renewal review, which is probably the bigger story here (it still took/takes 12 months). The plant's Unit 2 had previously received a 20-year renewal in 2004, making this its second subsequent renewal, in line with an executive order Trump issued last year to accelerate the process. Link.

• China's San'ao nuclear station Unit 1 (1116 MWe), the first of six planned reactors at the site, entered commercial operation this week. China has far more reactors under development than any other country and may well surpass the U.S. for largest nuclear power plant feet (whether measured in total capacity or by reactors) in coming years. Link.

Industry

• U.S. Steel announced a $1.9 billion investment to build the first direct reduced iron (DRI) facility in the United States at Big River Steel Works in Osceola, Arkansas, vertically integrating operations from iron ore mining in Minnesota through to electric arc furnace steelmaking on-site. The company said its partnership with Nippon Steel helped accelerate the timeline. Link.

• Atome, a British-listed green fertilizer company, took a final investment decision on a $665 million green ammonia plant in Villeta, Paraguay, which will use low-cost hydropower to produce ammonia via green hydrogen rather than natural gas. The company described it as the first time an industrial-scale green fertilizer facility has been closed and financed. Link.

Transportation 

• Tesla has begun mass-manufacturing its Class 8 electric semi at its Reno, Nevada production facility. Link.

• Rivian raised its Georgia factory production capacity estimate by 50% to 300,000 vehicles and renegotiated its DOE loan down to $4.5 billion from the original $6.6 billion award, in an effort to allow it access the funds sooner (if at all). Link. Link.

• Ford's EV division reported an $800 million operating loss in Q1 2026, flat year-over-year, on $1.2 billion in revenue (also flat), with a negative EBIT margin of -63%. The company says it is preparing a more affordable EV lineup on a new UEV platform, but, on the whole, I feel like all I’ve reported from legacy U.S. auto manufacturers EV divisions over the years in these newsletters are losses. Link.

• The U.K. now has just over 2 million licensed zero-emission vehicles on its roads, representing 4.8% of all registered vehicles. More than 500,000 ZEVs were licensed in 2025 alone, a 24% increase year-over-year. Link.

• BYD posted its lowest quarterly profit in three years, weighed down by softening demand in its home market. It seems the main story here is that among Chinese EV companies, there’s significantly more competition now than there was a few years ago; certainly, BYD isn’t enjoying the same market share it had even as recently as 2024. Link.

Honorable financing mentions

• Living Carbon, based out of San Francisco, raised $500 million investment, plus an additional ~$13 million direct equity investment, from Octopus Energy Generation to accelerate its U.S. afforestation and reforestation projects. Link.

• CMBlu Energy, based out of Alzenau, Germany, raised a $58.6 million Series C at a valuation exceeding $1 billion for its non-lithium multi-hour battery systems for data centers and industrial applications. Samsung Ventures led. Link.

• DISA Technologies, based out of Casper, WY, raised $33 million in an equity funding round led by Galvanize to use high-pressure fluid technology to extract minerals from ore and recover uranium from contaminated mine sites. BHP Ventures, Evok Innovations, Constellation Energy, Halliburton Labs, Valor Equity Partners, and Veriten also participated. Total funding raised stands at $83 million. Link.

• BMW i Ventures launched a new $300 million fund focused on early-stage through Series B startups working on agentic AI, physical AI (including robotics and AVs), industrial software, advanced materials, and manufacturing and supply chain technologies. This new raise brings the firm's total capital under management to $1.1 billion. Link.

• Kompas VC, based out of Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Berlin, and Tel Aviv, closed its second fund at €160 million (~$187.5 million). The firm writes early-stage checks of €3–5 million into companies focused on decarbonization, manufacturing, supply chains, and critical infrastructure. Link.

• Arcadia, an AI-powered energy intelligence platform, entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ENGIE Impact, the utility expense management, energy procurement, and sustainability advisory arm of ENGIE. The combined business will serve over 1,500 enterprise customers, including roughly 25% of the Fortune 500, manage 4.5 million meters globally, and process over $30 billion in annual utility payments. Link.

Ciao,

— Nick