Cherry blooms

Hi,

Spring is assuredly sprung in the Northern Hemisphere, a fact I can divine not just from calendars but from my allergies to pollen and from continued and sustained high temperatures in the Western U.S. Here’s where else signs of spring are cropping up (or aren’t) across climate, energy, and sustainability circles:

ONE STORY IN (TWO) SENTENCE(S) AND A CHART

• Here’s one that’s further off the beaten path: Owing to the splendor and spiritual significance of cherry blossoms, when cherry blossoms bloom in Kyoto, Japan, is the subject of the most meticulously kept, longest-standing climate data. This year’s bloom set a record for earliest bloom; what exactly that portends is difficult to say. Link. Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

Climate science

• JPMorgan's institutional clients are increasingly focused on climate tipping points, particularly the weakening of Atlantic ocean currents (AMOC) and what that could mean for European winters and migration. The bank's climate advisory head said it's "quite possible" the world is shifting from a linear to an accelerated nonlinear phase of climate change. More on that second point coming in a longer form article soon. Link.

• NOAA's March termination of an atmospheric dataset has alarmed researchers who rely on it to model long-term Arctic sea ice thickness trends, creating a gap in one of the world's key ice-monitoring systems. Link.

Energy market x Iran war updates

• Oil prices are now over $110 a barrel after President Trump failed to assuage concerns regarding the timeline of the conflict in Iran last week, even equivocating with respect to whether reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a key U.S. military objective. Trump has since taken to social media to harp on promises of continued strikes against Iran, including on its energy infrastructure, provided no deal is reached. I wrote more about the longer term implications of prolonged conflict in this piece. Link.

• Oil price moves in March represented the largest-ever monthly gain, while aluminum also approached a four-year high following Iranian strikes on major smelters in the UAE and Bahrain. The Gulf accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum output. Link.

• The IMF has cautioned that a prolonged Middle East conflict would drive up prices and slow growth globally, warning that highly indebted nations would have little fiscal room to cushion the blow. Link.

• U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a three-month low in March as rising gas prices and war-related market volatility weighed on households, according to the University of Michigan survey. Link.

• Slovenia became the first EU nation to ration fuel amid the Iran-driven energy shock. The European Commission followed by encouraging remote work and reduced travel across the bloc while pushing member states to accelerate renewables deployment. Link.

• U.S. LNG exports hit a record high in March, with shipments to Asia more than doubling month-over-month as buyers scrambled for alternatives after the Middle East conflict knocked nearly 20% of global LNG supply offline. Link.

Elsewhere in energy and industry

• Gas turbine manufacturers are backordered through the end of the decade as data center and power plant demand outstrips supply. Wood Mackenzie data shows turbine prices heading toward $600/kW by late next year, up 195% since 2019, with 110 GW of global orders against only ~65 GW of manufacturing capacity. Link.

• U.S. solar installations totaled 26.5 GW last year, a 22% decline year-over-year, though solar remained the most-added generation source in 2025. Link.

• Italy's parliament is debating legislation to extend the life of its coal plants to 2038, 13 years past the original shutdown deadline, as the country imports nearly all of the natural gas that supplies 40% of its electricity and heating. Sign of the times. Link.

• The European Commission approved a ~$6.9 billion aid package under an Italian-government led scheme to accelerate green hydrogen production, a space that has suffered considerably of late. Link.

Policy

• The Trump administration's Endangered Species Committee voted unanimously to exempt Gulf of America oil and gas operations from Endangered Species Act protections, citing national security. Conservationists warn the move threatens the Rice's whale, the Gulf's only year-round resident large whale, and the Center for Biological Diversity has amended its lawsuit to challenge the decision. Link.

• Maine is moving to freeze construction of data centers above 20 MW until November 2027 to study the AI boom's impact on its grid. Electricity costs in the state jumped nearly 60% between 2021 and 2026. There will likely be more such moritoriums in states to come; often, one state setting the precedent unleashes a wave of copycats. Link.

• Indonesia's forest loss jumped 66% in 2025 to an eight-year high, driven by loosened environmental protections and a push for national food and energy self-sufficiency. Link.

Transportation

• Waymo now completes over 500,000 paid robotaxi rides weekly across 10 US cities, a tenfold increase from May 2024. Its fleet exceeds 3,000 vehicles, and CEO Tekedra Mawakana is targeting one million weekly rides this year. J.P. Morgan analysts project the company could capture 7% of the U.S. rideshare market by 2030. Link.

• General Motors idled its Factory Zero EV plant in Detroit again, sending 1,300 workers home as EV demand weakens in the U.S. The pause comes less than three months after a prior round of layoffs and shift reductions at the $2.2 billion facility. Link.

Fission and fusion

• The Nuclear Regulatory Commission renewed Diablo Canyon's license, allowing California's last operating nuclear reactors to continue running through at least 2030. Link.

• Holtec completed a key restoration milestone at the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan, bringing the reactor to operating temperature and pressure for the first time since its 2022 shutdown. The system will now undergo further testing and preparation for fuel loading. Link.

• Japan's Kyushu Electric Power is restarting the 890 MW Sendai No. 2 reactor, which would bring all four of its nuclear units online and cut LNG consumption by an estimated 390,000 tonnes per month. Link.

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Realta Fusion are partnering to design and manufacture high-temperature superconducting magnets to accelerate Realta's path to commercial fusion power plants, which is presently targeted for the mid-2030s. Link.

Honorable financing mentions

• Eclipse, based out of Palo Alto, raised $1.31 billion across two funds targeting physical sectors including manufacturing, energy, and transportation. Link.

• Valar Atomics, based out of El Segundo, raised $450 million ($340M equity, $110M debt) at a $2 billion valuation to build clusters of small reactors for energy-intensive sites like AI data centers. Link.

• Also, a Palo Alto-based Rivian spinout that makes small EVs for consumers and commercial delivery, raised $200 million at a $1 billion valuation led by Greenoaks Capital, with Prysm and DoorDash also participating. The company announced a DoorDash partnership focused on autonomous deliveries. Link.

• Starcloud, based out of Redmond, Washington, raised a $170 million Series A at a $1.1 billion valuation to build solar-powered data centers in space. Benchmark and EQT Ventures co-led. Link.

• Voltify, based out of Philadelphia and Israel, raised a $30 million seed round to retrofit diesel locomotives with battery-electric powertrains that recharge while in motion. Aleph and Fortescue co-led. Link.

• TerraSpark, based out of Luxembourg, raised $5 million in pre-seed funding to work on space-based solar energy transmission to Earth. Daphni, Sake Bosch, better ventures, the Hans(wo)men Group, and Karaoke Club invested. Link.

Til’ next time,

— Nick