Batteries: Still boomin' (pt II)

Hey there,

Last week, we featured some news about America’s blossoming battery manufacturing capacity. This week’s featured chart zooms out to appreciate how much continued progress the world is making in terms of battery energy storage system deployment, and that’s just on the utility-scale side, not residential or in vehicles themselves. Read on →

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• Since 2012, when the first lithium-ion batteries were connected to power grids, more than 267 GW of battery energy storage system capacity has been deployed; future projections are even rosier, and past projections have universally been conservative. Link.

NEWS, DATA, AND HEADLINES

Climate science

• A new study published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Letters found that a decline in low-level cloud cover over the past two decades has driven half of the increase in Earth's energy imbalance over that time period. The research attributes about 74% of the cloud decrease to human-driven factors, including cloud feedback from ocean warming (40%), greenhouse gas emissions (21%), and reduced aerosol emissions (14%), while natural climate variability accounts for just 3%. The researchers note that, on average, climate models accurately simulate recent low-cloud cover trends, meaning these effects are already accounted for in existing warming projections. But it was certainly news to me. Link.

• Arctic wintertime sea ice has tied last year's record for its lowest-ever winter peak extent according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice reached its high point on March 14 at roughly 14.29 million square kilometers, a statistical tie with last year's all-time low of 14.31 million km². Only 5% of the oldest, thickest sea ice recorded in the 1980s has survived to the present day, and summertime sea ice cover has been halved, shrinking by roughly 12% per decade. Link.

• Seventeen states broke records for their hottest March temperatures as a massive heat wave has swept the western U.S. Some places saw temperatures 30 to 40° F above historical averages. Climate attribution models suggest this latest heat wave would likely not have been possible without human-caused climate change. Link.

Energy market x Iran war updates

• Oil prices soared again this week after falling sharply at the beginning of last week as Tehran dismissed the 15-point US proposal to pause the war and issued its own counterproposal; JPMorgan analysis found that the month of March has been one of the largest drawdowns on global oil inventories on record. The last cargo ships that left the Gulf before the war have nearly all reached Asia, which is likely to face the first visible demand losses in April, followed by Africa, then Europe. Link. Link.

• Repair costs from damage and shutdowns hitting fossil fuel infrastructure in the Middle East could amount to at least $25 billion, according to Rystad Energy. The costliest attack hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, where destruction of LNG trains has reduced capacity by 17%, and full recovery will likely take five years due to high demand for gas turbines needed for data center electrification and coal plant retirements. Link.

• Reuters estimates that at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is also halted following Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and the seizure of tankers. Link.

• In general, as oil and natural gas prices surge, Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand are turning back to coal. South Korea has lifted limits on coal fleet utilization, Thailand has restarted decommissioned coal units, and Japan is planning to lift limits on coal output. Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter, reversed plans to cut production from 790 million to 600 million tons and is now allowing miners to increase output. The Newcastle coal benchmark is up ~20% since the war. In Europe, Italy's energy minister is flagging the possibility of reactivating reserve plants, and Germany's energy mix has already seen a 2% coal spike. I flagged this dynamic as likely more than two ago in this piece in these pages. Link.

• The Philippines declared a national energy emergency to deal with continuing energy market disruptions from the Iran war. The government now has new authority to plan for rationing and prevent fuel hoarding, and may spur Manila's plans to bring a nuclear power plant online decades after a nearly complete facility was abandoned. Link.

• Taiwan and Japan, two of East Asia's biggest economies that have become increasingly dependent on LNG over the past decade, are scrambling for alternatives after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off LNG shipments from Qatar. Specifically, Japan is temporarily lifting restrictions on coal-fired power plants and will begin releasing 53 million barrels of oil (roughly one month of consumption) from its national reserve. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also asked the IEA for another coordinated release of global oil stockpiles to hedge against prolonged disruptions. Link. Link. Link.

• In the U.K., home rooftop solar sales are up 54% month-over-month and heat pump sales are up 50%, as consumers look to respond to rising energy costs. Similar trends are emerging globally in response to the Iran war's impact on oil prices. Link.

Elsewhere in energy and electrification

• The U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Commerce announced a public-private partnership with SoftBank Group and SB Energy to build 10 GW of new power generation, including at least 9.2 GW of natural gas, to power new data center development. The project will be located at the former Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Pike County, Ohio, with SB Energy and AEP Ohio also partnering to build $4.2 billion in new electrical transmission infrastructure. SB Energy committed to paying for the transmission buildout and a $40 million Community Benefits Agreement. Link.

• BYD outlined plans for at least 20 new dealerships in Canada. At least three Chinese automakers are on track to start selling cars in Canada by the year’s-end. Link.

• The largest offshore wind farm being developed in the U.S., Dominion Energy's 2.6-GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, began delivering power to the grid this week. The project started sending electricity to Virginia's wires days after Ørsted's Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island also began producing power for New England’s grid last week. The Coastal Virginia project is expected to be complete in early 2027, barring additional assaults from the Trump administration. Link.

• Previously, Constellation Energy hoped that the nuclear reactor at the former Three Mile Island power plant could be ready to generate electricity by 2027; now, the company has updated its timelines given that it may not be able to connect the plant to the power grid until 2031, even if the plant itself is ready prior. Link.

Policy

• India submitted its new national climate plan, aiming to cut emissions intensity by 47% from 2005 levels by 2035 and lift the share of installed clean power capacity to 60% from 52.6%, where it stands currently. Reactions from analysts are generally positive, though some noted the targets should be relatively easy to meet and could, as is typical, be more ambitious. Separately, new analysis found that India's carbon emissions grew at their slowest pace in over two decades in 2025, with power sector emissions falling 3.8% due to record renewable energy expansion and slowing power demand growth. Link. Link.

• TotalEnergies dropped its net zero target, announcing a 2050 vision in which oil and gas will still represent about 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of production. The company says roughly 50% of its energy would come from low-carbon electricity (~500 TWh/year from ~400 GW of renewable capacity), about 25% from low-carbon energy molecules (biogas, hydrogen, e-fuels), and the remaining quarter from oil and gas. Link.

• Senators Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez unveiled legislation to place a moratorium on the construction of AI data centers. The bill aims to give the government time to create federal safeguards as towns and counties across the country, including in Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina, have passed temporary bans on datacenter buildout, and at least 11 states are considering similar policies. Link.

Honorable financing mentions

• Scalvy, based out of Austin, Texas, raised a $13.9 million Series A co-led by Silicon Badia to provide modular power distribution units that deliver and manage electricity across data center racks. Climate Capital, where I work part-time, also invested. I interviewed the CEO of Scalvy, Mohamed Badawy, on Climate Capital’s podcast last year. Link.

• Helix Earth, based out of Houston, Texas, raised $12 million in an oversubscribed Seed 2 round led by Veriten for its proprietary liquid-gas chemistry designed for the commercial HVAC market. Link.

Fin,

— Nick